[NoraSpinnor]

Eighty years ago, the world convulsed in the flames of World War II. This war stood out amongst the surrounding wars, due particularly to the atrocity. It ruptured the Net, leaving a deep chasm that humanity is still working to overcome. But there’s pattern… according to generational theorists William Strauss and Neil Howe, this level of systemic collapse isn’t random. It’s rhythmic. Predictable, even.

They called it the Fourth Turning.

According to their theory, history unfolds in repeating cycles of roughly 80–90 years, called saecula—the length of a long human life. Within each cycle, there are four seasons or turnings:

The High – an era of collective rebuilding and strength (Post-WWII America).
The Awakening – an age of rebellion and questioning (60s counterculture, civil rights, feminism).
The Unraveling – a breakdown of institutions and rising individualism (fall of the USSR, 9/11, cultural fragmentation).
The Crisis – a full collapse and reset of systems (now).

Each Fourth Turning arrives like winter… war, climatic shifts, pandemics… but there is always a rise and return.

2008–2028 (predicted crisis): Financial collapse, political extremism, pandemic, global fragmentation.
~1929–1945: Great Depression, World War II.
~1860–1865: American Civil War.
~1775–1783: American Revolution.
Every four generations, the old world burns and a new one emerges from its ashes.

Today, we are deep in the fire.

The disruption is global. At the time of writing this, over 30 armed conflicts are happening around the world, from Ukraine to Gaza to Sudan to Myanmar. Economies are shaking, empires are fraying, and people across ideologies are beginning to question democracy, capitalism, and the structure of modern civilization. Most chilling of all: more people now favor sacrificing freedom for security than at any time in living memory.

The cycle is repeating.

The aging generation born into this upheaval, Millennials and Gen Z, are pushed to the front lines. According to the theory, Millennials are cast as the Hero Generation, meant to rebuild, while Gen X (the Nomads) are meant to guide and repair. Gen Z will be the Artists, the storytellers of what comes after.

The outcome of a Fourth Turning is never guaranteed. Sometimes, societies emerge stronger, unified, and reborn. Other times, they vanish into history.

The fire has already started. The systems are breaking. The trust is gone. But within the chaos lies a rare and sacred opportunity: to forge something new and lasting that will carry peace into subsequent generations.

The ancients would call this an age of cataclysm, a time when the stars shift, the old gods fall, and new myths rise from the dust.

History is speaking. The cycle is closing. Will we rise, or vanish?

Share your thoughts on humanity’s current cycle and its future.

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